EU Share of Pork, Beef, and Chicken Global Exports Continues Decline - Part 1
In 2024, EU pork, beef, and chicken meat exports are forecast to account for 15 percent of global exports, marking a significant decline from 20 percent in 2019. In comparison, total Brazil pork, beef, and chicken meat exports are forecast to increase from 20 percent to 26 percent during the same period, while the United States is expected to remain virtually unchanged at 22 percent.
COVID-19 induced changes to meat consumption, elevated input costs, animal diseases, and increased regulatory burdens have reshaped animal production among major producers. This is particularly true for the EU, where total pork, beef, and chicken meat production fell 2 percent from 2019 through 2022 and is anticipated to decline another 2 percent in 2023 and 1 percent in 2024. EU veterinary medicine regulations as well as forthcoming animal welfare legislation have created uncertainty for producers, disincentivized investment, and increased production costs.
PORK: In 2024, EU pork exports are expected to decline 25 percent compared to 2019 and account for 15 percent of production, down from 19 percent in 2019. In addition to growing regulatory burdens, EU swine producers continue to face challenges controlling the impact of African swine fever, which has led to reductions in the swine herd and limited exports to some markets. As production contracts, the share intended for domestic consumption has grown at the expense of exports.
BEEF: Like pork, EU beef production has been negatively impacted by growing regulatory requirements and is forecast to decline 8 percent between 2019 and 2024. While the percent of production exported is only expected to decline from 10 percent to 9 percent over the same period, both exports and production continue fall.
CHICKEN: EU chicken production is forecast to grow 2 percent from 2019 through 2024. However, exports as a percent of production are forecast at 16 percent in 2024, down from 20 percent in 2019. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has constrained production growth and hence exportable supplies. HPAI-related trade restrictions have curtailed exports
Beef and Veal
Global production in 2024 is forecast virtually unchanged at 59.1 million tons as increases in Brazil, China, and India are offset by declines in the United States, Argentina, Canada, and the EU. Brazil production is expected to rise 3 percent to a record 10.8 million tons as economic recovery supports domestic demand. China production is higher due to a marginal increase in cow inventory while India production is driven by rising slaughter to meet increasing international and domestic demand. Argentina production is forecast lower as slaughter returns to levels closer to recent history after drought-induced liquidation in 2023. Contraction in the Canadian herd is forecast to continue with cattle inventories dropping to the lowest level in the past 35 years. EU production continues to be confronted with high input prices and a complexity of regulations, which combined are pressuring profit margins and disincentivizing investment.
Global exports in 2024 are forecast up 1 percent to 11.9 million tons due as greater shipments from Brazil, Australia, and Argentina more than offset lower exports from the United States, Canada, and the EU. Brazil and Australia will both see a significant portion of increased production moved to foreign markets where demand is relatively firm. The world’s two leading exporters will capture increased market share, particularly in those countries such as the United States where beef production is expected to decline. South American competitors Paraguay and Uruguay are also forecast to make gains. Although China demand is forecast to wane in 2024, global demand will be supported by small gains by several markets.
U.S. production and exports: U.S. beef production is forecast down 6 percent on tighter cattle inventories. The decline in production coupled with increased supplies in Australia will spur growth in imports and a decrease in exports. Imports are forecast at 1.7 million tons, a level only achieved in 2004. Exports are forecast 6 percent lower to 1.3 million tons, constrained by lower domestic production and price competitive supplies from other key suppliers (Australia and Brazil).
Source United States Department of Agriculture - Foreign Agricultural Service