Global production in 2024 is forecast virtually unchanged year over year at 115.5 million tons as lower production in the EU and China is mostly offset by larger production in Brazil, Vietnam, and the United States. EU pork production is forecast 2 percent lower year over year to 21.2 million tons. The EU sow herd continued to decline in 2023 and is forecast at 10.3 million head in 2024, down 1 percent. Feed prices have moderated and sector profitability improved in 2023. However, weak domestic demand and the lack of new export markets to replace China are expected to lead to industry restructuring in 2024 as producers seek to align production with lower total demand. China production is forecast 1 percent lower as weak domestic demand has led to large industry losses through most of 2023, encouraging producers to reduce production. Brazil production is forecast 5 percent higher year over year as hog prices reflect growth in a number of export markets, including Mexico, Singapore, and the Dominican Republic and input costs are expected to decline, leading to improved producer margins. Vietnam production is forecast to increase 5 percent to 3.7 million tons on recovering domestic demand as a result of economic recovery following COVID-19 and efficiency gains from industry investment and consolidation.
Global exports are forecast to increase 2 percent to 10.4 million tons in 2024 as Brazil exports continue to gain market share from EU and U.S. pork products, particularly in Japan, and Mexico. United Kingdom exports are forecast to increase 9 percent as lower input prices and higher pig prices are expected to lead to greater supplies available for export to the EU and China. Global pork imports are forecast to increase by 1 percent in 2024 with increases from Hong Kong, China, and Japan more than offsetting lower imports from Taiwan and the United Kingdom.
U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast 2 percent higher in 2024 to 12.7 million tons on a strong increase to pigs per litter and falling feed costs. U.S. exports are forecast to increase 3 percent in 2024 on strong demand from Canada, the Philippines, and South Korea as well as gaining market share from the EU in China and Australia.
